In Nigerian politics, a bye-election is rarely accorded the gravitas of a general poll. It is frequently dismissed as a parochial affair, yet, in the eye of a keen observer, they function as a canary in the coalmine of a ruling party’s vitality. They are the microscopic fissures that presage a larger structural failure or success, the subtle tremor that warns of a coming catastrophic event.

The recent bye-election conducted in Garki/Babura Federal Constituency in Jigawa State is one of such tremor which have presented an inconvenient and politically hazardous truth which the All Progressives Congress (APC) party never forget easily. This truth was the embarrassment in the person of Mohammed Badaru Abubakar, the Minister of Defence. Shamefully, the party now openly nurtures a profound vulnerability which constitutes a clear and present danger to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s second-term bid.

However, the real facts of the election are not merely disappointing for the APC, but becoming nothing short of a categorical repudiation. The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) secured a resounding victory by amassing 308 votes in comparison to 112 votes APC struggled to get. This numerical deficit of nearly a three-to-one ratio, is politically significant and defining in itself. However, the true moment of profound symbolic rupture occurred at the very epicentre of the Minister’s supposed influence: his own polling unit. For a former two-term governor of the state, and a sitting Minister of Defence to suffer such a comprehensive and humiliating defeat on his home turf, is not just a simple political setback; it is an unequivocal verdict on his evaporated political capacity. It is the electorate’s most potent form of communication, which declares its local influence to be not merely diminished, but utterly annihilated.

Evidently, this electoral defeat clearly goes beyond one man’s personal humiliation. It exposes a much more pernicious and destructive story of the powerful, nearly indisputable proof of activity at the highest levels of the Tinubu administration. A scandal of epic proportions is presented by reports and widely shared images of people who have been identified as Minister Badaru’s own political operators, his loyal foot soldiers, publicly celebrating the PDP’s victory. This is not the behavior of disheartened partisans, but a victorious celebration of people who have just accomplished a well planned mission.

A troubling question has been imposed on all patriotic minds by this blatant political drama: is the Minister of Defence, the same man entrusted with the sacrosanct duty of safeguarding Nigeria’s territorial integrity, so politically consumed that he is now openly working for the opposition? The rational response to this is quite disturbing to understand. How can a Minister who cannot command the loyalty of his own men in a simple bye-election be trusted to command the loyalty of the armed forces in the intricate realm of national security? The level of cognitive dissonance is astounding, and a reassessment of national security is necessary.

To put this in a better perspective, it can be said that the long-standing suspicion regarding Minister Badaru actions has brought is political allegiances to question. His purported alliance and overt sympathies with elements of the PDP in Jigawa State have long been the subject of sensitive discussion within underground political circles. This electoral result provides concrete evidence of his men’s actual allegiances, and it speaks volumes about his own stand. It portrays a character whose interests are aligned on two opposing sides, revealing a political schizophrenic whose main focus is on a self-serving agenda of personal political survival rather than the party platform he purports to openly support. This duality renders him a liability of the highest order. It projects the Tinubu-led administration as a government that is not in full control of its own apparatus.

Unfortunately, this electoral irrelevance is in fact, the direct consequence of his underwhelming performance during his eight-year tenure as Governor of Jigawa State. How? It is no rocket science that Governments are judged by the tangible improvements they make and the legacy they leave, and the verdict on Badaru’s legacy has been delivered by the best language that matters: “the ballot.” The result showed that his constituent lacked tangible transformative impact, thereby destroying any electoral leverage he might have once possessed. The people have spoken, and their message is a unified rejection: “We are disappointed in Badaru.”

It is worthy of note to state that, this profound political inadequacy wouldn’t have been concerning enough if it was just confined to party alignment. But unfortunately, it is exponentially magnified by also reflecting in his current portfolio as the Ministry of Defence. At this point, the implications has shifted from merely politically damaging to existentially threatening for the country at large. His personality is one that can be termed “Transactional Politics,” a style of governance that views every public office, no matter how sensitive, through the prism of political interest and commercial opportunity that should be explored. This is a dangerous mindset that would not think twice in sacrificing national stability on the altar of political expediency. Under his watch, the Ministry of Defence has morphed from a strategic command post into what increasingly resembles a political bazaar, a arena for the trading of influence and the settlement of cronies, tilting it into a vegetative state of bureaucratic inertia and strategic confusion.

What many Nigerians failed to understand is that, the correlation between a weak, politically compromised Defence Minister and the escalating fragility of the nation’s security architecture is not coincidental. It is causal. It is a result gotten when the leadership of a ministry is so preoccupied with political survival and internal scheming, then, the single-minded sharp focus that is required to execute asymmetric wars becomes dissipated. The morale of the troops, who witness the political jubilation of their minister’s men for the opposition, inevitably suffers. Strategy becomes subjugated to political calculation. The procurement process, becomes vulnerable to manipulations that favour political affiliates over national interest. This is not mere speculation; it is the logical outcome of placing a politician of demonstrably low credibility and conflicted loyalties in charge of the nation’s most sensitive portfolio.

Therefore, it is even a big understatement to postulate that Minister Badaru is merely worthless to Tinubu’s administration. He is not a passive non-entity, but an active liability. He is a danger, a ticking, walking, talking vulnerability that can easily and ruthlessly be exploited by opposition in the run-up to 2027. It is comically laughable that the campaign advertisements virtually write themselves ready for use:

“If the President’s own Defence Minister cannot win his polling unit, Can you trust such a government to secure your home?”

Believe me when I say that this is a devastatingly simple and potent narrative that will resonate with many Nigerians who are already aware of the present state of insecurity and political hypocrisy in the country. Minister Badaru’s presence in President Tinubu’s cabinet is a gift to opposition parties. His inability to mobilise, inspire, or deliver his immediate constituency presages a catastrophic inability to secure a wider region for the second term for President Tinubu. A general who cannot hold his own fort has no business with being entrusted with the defence of an empire.

Consequently, for the APC to be revered as a truly dominant and purposeful ruling party, and for it to be taken seriously in its ambition to secure President Tinubu’s second term, the call for Minister Abubakar Badaru’s immediate resignation or dismissal is urgent and very imperative, not one to be seen as partisan malice. It is a necessary surgery in removing a rotting limb in order to save the body politic. A continual toleration of such a monumental and publicly demonstrated failure erodes the very foundation of the party’s credibility.

As a renowned political strategist who President Tinubu is, he needs to understand the level of this threat. Compounding the monumental tasks before him ahead of 2027 election, with an internal, self-inflicted wound of this magnitude in his party is an act of political suicide. However, removing Badaru, who is a proven failure and electoral liability, is not only just a good way of positioning Nigeria well for the next election, but also the only way to avert a catastrophic erosion for himself and the party’s base. Making a mistake to retain him, is to signal that political accommodation trumps electoral viability and national security.

At this present, the embarrassing bye-election should be perceived as a deafening shout from a small constituency. It must be seen as a warning that must be heeded on the national stage. The choice before President Tinubu is clear: succumb to the pressure of political accommodation and risk everything, or jettison a minister who has become the living embodiment of his government’s vulnerabilities. The fate of the second-term bid may very well depend on this singular, decisive act.

Ibrahim writes from Gusau.